What to Expect at the DNC

The Democrats are looking to keep momentum and expand their base.

Today kicks off the beginning of the four-day long Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago, Illinois. While political conventions are often devoid of policy talk in favor of energetic messaging, there are still key insights that can be learned from them insofar as the strategies that campaigns attempt to use.

Eyeing the Youth Vote

Headlining the event for tonight is President Joe Biden, who stepped down as the presumptive nominee about a month ago and paved the way for his Vice President, Kamala Harris, to take the reins as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate. His prime time speech, which will likely have millions of viewers, will be yet another opportunity for him to “pass the torch” over to her.

As attendees gather into the stadium, they’ll be welcomed by signage that says “history is in your hands,” further emphasizing the transition.

In fact, focusing on the next generation of political actors is a major focus for the Democratic Party this election, further proven by the fact that they will also be streaming the event on apps such as TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube— all of which are heavily used by Americans from ages 18 to 29. Despite the fact that the younger age groups tend to vote less often than their elders, this strategy could prove promising. Within the last few election cycles, the youth vote (ages 18 to 29) has grown, with turnout going from 39% in 2016 to roughly 50% in 2020.

Re-introducing Tim Walz

The DNC is also another opportunity for more Americans to become familiar with Harris’ running mate, Tim Walz.

Even though Walz hit the ground running since his debut just under two weeks ago, with his polling numbers showing that he’s more favorable than Donald Trump’s VP pick, J.D. Vance, there is still one problem: people don’t know much about him.

When Walz was first introduced, an astounding 71% of Americans reported that they had never heard of him; and while that number has improved since then, nearly a quarter of Americans (24%) still don’t know who he is. This could be problematic, as name recognition is an important factor among candidates (albeit, more so for the presidential candidate than the VP candidate), especially when VP picks are often used to bring new demographics into the fold.

To be sure, when Walz accepts the nomination for Vice President on Wednesday night, he will be telling all of America about his background and his beliefs. Only from there can we see a more accurate representation of how the American electorate views him.

Keeping the Momentum

As mentioned at the top, political conventions are chock-full of powerful and vibrant messaging in lieu of in-depth discussions on policy. Having these types of events allows political parties to both reach out to millions of Americans — many of which might be undecided — as well as mobilize their bases.

Both of these are critical for Harris, as she looks to keep her lead over Donald Trump. Per Nate Silver’s election forecast model, she’s currently ahead in the polls at 47.1% to Trump’s 44.6%. While she seems to have a solid lead over the 45th President, Harris’ gains seemed to not only be stagnating, but even declining slightly. While Silver’s model predicts Harris to have a 53.5% chance of winning the election with Trump only 45.9%, her chances were higher just five days ago when it was estimated to be a 56.7% chance. It is imperative for Harris to continue to capitalize on the momentum she gained following Biden’s departure so that she can ensure victory in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Assuming Harris has a strong performance during her acceptance speech on Thursday, it’s likely that she will command such a lead as candidates typically receive roughly a four-point boost in the polls following their party’s convention— and in a political landscape where elections are determined along the margins, each candidate needs every point they can get their hands on.